Saturday, 21 January 2012

A crisis can it lead to another?

The auto market will restart in France! Indeed, unlike many other European countries, there is a strong recovery in automotive sales for two months (11% in May and 7% in June) thanks to the "cash for clunkers and bonus-malus and this gives rise a breath of fresh air Renault PSA groups (+9.5% for French manufacturers against 4.2% for foreign brands).

Then economic reality and "utopia"?

While new car sales continue to grow, the second hand market it is in free fall. Since the beginning of the year, sales opportunities fell 9.1% after falling 3.2% in 2008.

The reasons for these phenomena, the scrapping bonus-malus and that led consumers to become more attractive new vehicles.
We can worry about the short-term future of this "return false" because this new market influenced by the scrappage scheme will quickly run out of steam. Indeed over 20% of new registrations that have benefited from the scrapping since the beginning of the year, the state's back to the drawing in terms of budget for this bonus.

Initially, 220 million should be allocated for the scrappage scheme set up in late 2008 to revive the auto sector while in crisis. According to Luc Chatel, Secretary of State for Industry, the device "should exceed the amount originally expected."

Meanwhile, there is an almost complete halt in the labor market with more and more executives now affected by the persistence of the crisis as a direct result of the deterioration in growth. Large companies have no choice to continue to reduce their workforce and is now the turn of the executives toast.
The main "victims" of this are young graduates. Not easy today to find their first job even when you leave high school.

However, the decline in house prices (about 10% since the beginning of the year) is the only factor able to reconnect with consumers and boost the sector. Do not they say that "the market is often right"?

Paradoxically, it is very small and micro-businesses that are doing the "best" today because they have the advantage of being more responsive and more mobile, particularly those operating in emerging technologies.

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